Week in Review: Lame duck, jobs, President Carter & more

GENERAL ASSEMBLY

Lame duck Democrats let bad bills fly. In the final minutes of the Illinois House of Representatives’ 2024 Veto Session, House Republican Floor Leader Patrick Windhorst called for a vote to end Veto Session, and the entirety of the 103rd General Assembly, “sine die,” a Latin term that means “without a day.” A Sine Die adjournment would have ended session without setting a date to reconvene, but the motion was struck down by House Democrats, thus setting a time for the 103rd General Assembly to reconvene once more in early January in what is known as a “lame duck session.”

A lame duck session is a time when members of one General Assembly meet after a new General Assembly has been elected but before members are sworn in. In theory, the General Assembly can use this reconvention to resolve legislative matters still lingering from the spring or Veto sessions or address pressing issues that require immediate action.

While spending more time in Springfield to iron out important bills before the new General Assembly convenes may seem like a good idea, the term “lame duck” alludes to one of several flaws of such sessions. Given General Elections take place in November and inaugurations just before the beginning of a new General Assembly in January, legislators who will not serve another term, whether that be due to retirement or losing their election, retain their position until their successor is sworn in. During this period, outgoing legislators continue to legislate in their full capacity despite having no obligation to serve in their constituents’ best interest or uphold promises made before the election. If a Generally Assembly does not adjourn sine die and reconvenes for a lame duck session in early January, lame duck members are given the opportunity to return to the Capitol once more for a few days of scot-free lawmaking.

Not only do lame duck sessions grant outgoing members a chance to legislate without any accountability to their respective districts, they are also a time where bills can pass without broad consensus. During Veto Session, which takes place in November, certain legislation, like tax hikes, requires a supermajority three-fifths vote, or 71 members in the House, to pass. During lame duck sessions, however, Illinois House rules require a mere simple majority of 60 votes to pass any bills discussed on the Floor. Given that outgoing legislators may be more likely to vote on contentious bills due to their lack of answerability, achieving this lowered vote threshold allows for the supermajority party to advance significant pieces of legislation with ease.

In recent years, the majority party has taken full advantage of the lame duck loophole, saving their worst for last. Thanks to the lower vote threshold, presence of outgoing members, and short time frame, State Democrats often reserve the additional days at the Capitol to file thousands of pages of their most costly and controversial bills knowing they are subject to little deliberation and are more likely to pass than if they were brought about under normal circumstances. Some of the most notable bills passed during previous lame duck sessions include:
  • SB 2505 (2011) - Imposed a 67% income tax hike on working families and 46% tax hike on employers
  • SB 3531 (2019) – Gave a 15% pay increase to the Governor’s appointed bureaucrats
  • HB 3653 (2021) - Created the SAFE-T Act, eliminating cash bail and placing unfunded mandates and restrictions on law enforcement
  • HB 5471 (2023) - Established Illinois’ so-called “Assault Weapons Ban”
  • SB 1720 (2023) - Increased pay for State politicians and created $400 million Pritzker slush fund
  • HB 969 (2023) - Created a Supplemental Budget appropriating more than $4.1 billion in fund requests
With lame duck session scheduled for January 4th to 7th, Illinoisans can expect to see a laundry list of out-of-touch bills filed, rehashed, or passed in the next few days. As is the case with most lame duck sessions, taxpayers should prepare to cough up more of their money in the near future, especially given the estimated $3 billion deficit in the upcoming budget. While Democrats like to keep their cards close their chest before lame duck sessions, looming fiscal shortfalls facing the State and the city of Chicago will likely spur new legislation to make up for these unbalanced budgets by increasing income, property, and sales taxes or reallocating money from other statewide funds.

High-ranking Illinois Democrats have also been vocal about their wish to “Trump-proof” Illinois following the 2024 Presidential Election. In essence, members of the majority party have voiced a desire to create new laws that counteract legislation they proclaim the President-elect will usher in over the next four years, many of which revolve around progressive social ideals. Though the supermajority was unable to receive enough support on such bills during November’s Veto Session, they will likely use the lame duck loophole to hastily push through far-left legislation at the last minute. This could take shape through strict environmental regulations, new burdens on job creators, programs for undocumented immigrants, and additional protections for abortion. Whatever State Democrats may do to limit the soon-to-be President’s goals, such measures will certainly be costly to working Illinoisans.

JOBS
Illinois Department of Employment Security report shows Greater Chicago losing jobs. The end-of-December report from the Department covered metro area job numbers through November of the calendar year. The numbers indicate that greater Chicago, which dominates Illinois’ overall population and employment picture, lost payroll jobs over the most recent 12-month period. In November 2023, employers in greater Chicago reported 3,847,600 payroll jobs. In November 2024, this number was 3,840,900 jobs, a decline of 6,700 positions. This decline reflects the layoffs and unfilled positions throughout Chicagoland, including lost jobs in Chicago-based financial management and information technology. This reported decline confirms the current stagnancy of the economy of greater Chicago. Figures from the Department of Revenue (IDOR), reflecting payroll income tax payments made to the State, generate additional information regarding this stagnancy.

Several smaller Illinois metro areas, headed by Champaign-Urbana, Rockford, Springfield, and the Metro-East region adjoining St. Louis, showed positive job trends during this period. These four areas generated 6,300 net new jobs during the parallel 12-month period, partly balancing the 6,700 jobs lost in Chicago. The Illinois metro areas that gained jobs are areas that could be experiencing the positive effects of growth in higher education, health care, and the health of neighboring states. Rockford and the Metro-East are both in border regions of the State of Illinois.

OUTDOOR SPORTS
Firearm deer season numbers for fall 2024. In an increase of 8% from 2023, the Illinois Department of Natural Resources (IDNR) reports that 82,496 deer were taken throughout Illinois during the first and second weekends of the full firearm deer season. The count reflects the deer tags reported by licensed hunters to the Department. The count includes both the first weekend (November 22-November 24) and the second weekend (December 5- December 8) of the traditional, shotgun-centered deer hunting season. In addition to these full weekends, archery deer hunting, and supplemental deer seasons bring down more of the game animals.

The three Illinois counties with more than 2,000 deer harvested during the firearm deer season were Randolph (2,183), Adams (2,141), and Jackson (2,010). Counties reporting 1,500 – 1,999 deer were Fayette, Fulton, Hancock, Jefferson, Macoupin, Marion, Pike, and Williamson Counties. All of these counties are in Southern Illinois or Western Illinois.

TAXES
Illinois Department of Revenue publishes its annual report. The Illinois Department of Revenue (IDOR) has submitted its Annual Report for Fiscal Year 2024 to the Governor and the four legislative leaders. The Report reinforces the belief by many objective observers, including the General Assembly’s Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability, that the State will face serious revenue challenges in the months ahead.

IDOR’s report identified several points of revenue collection and enforcement challenges that are being worked on. They include:

Apparent significant patterns of non-filing noncompliance. In the past fiscal year, IDOR has worked with the IRS and the Illinois Comptroller’s Office to impose assessments on over 102,000 non-filer taxpayers. These assessments encompass $244 million in unpaid income taxes to the State of Illinois.

Apparent significant patterns of people who claim to be domiciled in a no-income-tax state, such as Florida, Texas, or Wyoming, while continuing to live in Illinois. The Audit Bureau is working with various entities, including the Bureau of Criminal Investigations, to clarify these domiciliary issues and to enforce Illinois income tax law upon people who are living within our borders.

Apparent significant patterns of non-payment of sales tax when a taxable good is delivered to Illinois. Under the Leveling the Playing Field and Marketplace Facilitator laws, almost all commercial-sized sales operations that sell goods for delivery into Illinois are required to report the sales to IDOR, and charge and collect Illinois sales tax. Not all of them are doing so, and IDOR’s Audit Bureau is stepping up enforcement.

CITRUS BOWL
Illinois Fighting Illini notch first 10-win season since 2001. Illinois’ Citrus Bowl win over #15 South Carolina marked a triumphant New Years’ Eve bowl game for the Fighting Illini. The final score was 21-17. Already ranked at #20 prior to the nationally televised Citrus Bowl win, the Fighting Illinois placed themselves firmly in contention for one of the highest postseason rankings of teams that did not make the overall College Football Playoffs. Officially called the “Cheez-It Citrus Bowl,” the New Years’ Eve bowl game was played in the Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Florida.

PRESIDENT CARTER
Jimmy Carter, the 39th President of the United States, passes away at the age of 100. The first former U.S. President to celebrate his 100th birthday, President Jimmy Carter had suffered many misfortunes in office. These included the “energy crisis” that began in 1979, and the Iranian hostage crisis that stretched throughout 1980. The voters replaced Carter with the 40th President, Ronald Reagan, in November 1980. Carter was credited by Americans of both parties for his grace in defeat and his humanitarian actions as a former President. He died in his home state of Georgia on Sunday, December 29.

Illinois and federal law provide for standard actions to be taken upon the death of a President. These include flying all Illinois and U.S. flags at half-staff for a 30-day period, which will conclude on sunset of Wednesday, January 29. Illinois observes these memorial actions on a nonpartisan basis; the same mourning was observed during the most recent prior death of a U.S. President when the 41st President, George H.W. Bush, a Republican, passed away in November 2018.