This year-over-year decrease in seasonal job offerings only provides a small glimpse into the larger trend the U.S. has seen in Q4 hiring. 2024’s projected total of 520,000 seasonal hires would be the second-fewest since 2009 and the third consecutive year with a figure below 600,000.
The Challenger report suggests that retailers’ restrained hiring pace could be attributed to a number of factors including more selective consumer spending. Following several years of high inflation and interest rates, many Americans have depleted their savings and are displaying more frugal buying patterns, focusing more on essentials than otherwise. According to Morning Consult, U.S. adults cut back discretionary purchases by more than 15% from July 2023 to July 2024, accounting for inflation. Americans are expected to remain somewhat hesitant to open their wallets for the remainder of the year with holiday spending estimated to rise just 3 percent from 2023, the slowest year-over-year increase since 2018. Given that inflation is expected to sit at around 2.5% at the end of the year, real volume holiday sales may only increase half a percent from the 2023 season.
The ever-rising cost of labor is another reason big-box retailers could tighten their hiring belts this holiday shopping season. While seasonal job searches have jumped significantly since last year, increased wages and employee benefit costs have led some businesses to reconsider staff sizes and shift their focus to other areas, such as improving automation and reskilling existing workers. Though these strategies can help mitigate the impacts of having fewer employees, retailers with staffs that are stretched thin may face challenges ensuring shelves are stocked, check-out lines are short, and customers can receive help while shopping. Issues such as these can make for unpleasant shopping experiences, and in turn, limit sales.
The hassle of in-person holiday shopping has led many Americans to begin shopping online toward the end of the year. In 2024, holiday e-commerce sales are expected to reach $240 billion, an 8.4% increase from 2023. Though traditional retail positions will likely be less abundant this holiday season, the anticipated online shopping surge will provide plenty of opportunities for seasonal work elsewhere, especially in the delivery sector. Amazon recently announced they are hiring 250,000 workers in preparation for the holiday season, the same figure they announced last year. Courier services such as UPS are aiming to expand their workforce and provide 25% more seasonal opportunities than in 2023. While these hiring targets are reflective of just a few large companies, recent shifts made by both consumers and businesses regarding shopping should encourage those looking for seasonal work to make adjustments of their own and pursue transportation and customer fulfillment roles in future holiday seasons.