The Week in Review: March 10-14

Budget – Illinois’ “Net Deficit”

·         New report shows cumulative State deficit of $47.8 billion.  This cumulative deficit of almost $48 billion (nearly $4,000 per Illinois resident) comes from the Comprehensive Annual Financial Report (CAFR) for FY 2013, released by Comptroller Judy Baar Topinka and the Statewide Financial Statement Audit released by Auditor General Bill Holland.  The purpose of the figures presented in the CAFR are to drill past the cash-flow situation of the State of Illinois (which is what the “official” State budget looks at) and uncover the gap between resources available and commitments made. 

The majority of the gap consists of pension obligations and commitments to pay health-care-related expenses to providers of services to eligible patients, primarily Medicaid patients and State workers.  This number is not a one-year deficit, but a representation, on a balance-sheet basis, of the cumulative deficit that has been building up over a multi-year period.  Almost two-thirds of the deficit has appeared during the past seven years ($18.7 billion in FY06 to $47.8 billion in FY13), roughly coinciding with the tenure of Gov. Pat Quinn.

Illinois’ unpaid bill backlog of $6 billion makes up a significant chunk of the overall $48 billion deficit, but well more than half of the deficit has not yet been billed to the State.  It represents the current cash value of the State’s promises to fulfill future commitments.  In some cases, such as the December 2013 pension reform law now being tested in the courts, the State may be able to retroactively alter the terms of these commitments and thereby reduce the deficit.

Particularly concerning to hardworking taxpayers is the fact that despite raising taxes by $26 billion, Illinois still has a $48 billion long-term deficit and $6 billion in unpaid bills.  With the “temporary” 67% income tax increase set to partially roll back in 2015, will Gov. Quinn and Democrat legislators raise taxes again or will they finally work with Republicans to cut wasteful spending and put a stop to fraud and abuse?

Budget – State Debt Rating

·         Taxpayers paid estimated $80 million more in interest due to poor credit rating.  The finding, which covered the five years from 2008 into 2013, came from the Institute of Government and Public Affairs, an affiliate of the University of Illinois.  The Institute tracked Illinois’ debt issuances and the interest rates the State and its taxpayers were required to pay by the marketplace. 

General obligation debt, the debt sold by Illinois for most capital infrastructure purposes, is currently ranked by Wall Street in the lower half of investment-grade securities.  For example, Moody’s (the world’s largest credit-rating firm) currently ranks Illinois as A3 with a negative outlook, four notches above non-investment-grade level.  The City of Chicago is currently ranked by the same firm as Baa3, three notches above “junk bond” level.

Investors traditionally demand higher interest rate payments and premiums from borrowers with subpar credit ratings.  The $80 million difference tabbed by the Fiscal Futures Project of the Institute of Government and Public Affairs represents the difference between the interest rates actually paid by the State of Illinois and the collective interest rates paid by all 50 states.

Many of Illinois’ neighboring states have less debt, lower structural deficits (or even fiscal surpluses), and much higher credit ratings than Illinois.  For example, Moody’s has awarded Indiana its coveted “AAA” rating, the highest rank available.

Concealed Carry

·         Number of late-stage concealed carry license (CCL) application approvals pass 25,000; applications pass 50,000.  These numbers reflects the applicants who have paid an application fee and undergone required CCL training.  The Illinois State Police reported on Tuesday, March 11 that the number of applications had reached 51,040, and the number of licenses approved had reached 27,139 (more than half the total).  Of these applications, 26,000 (51%) came from the ninety-six counties that make up Downstate Illinois, and 25,040 (49%) came from the six-county Chicago area. 

CCL applicants are required to pay a $150 application fee, electronically submit personal identification information, and undergo significant personal safety training (16 hours of training for most applicants).  The large number of applications making their way through the system demonstrates the status of the new State CCL law. 

Of the more than 51,000 fully submitted applications, more than half have been approved.    Further approvals are taking place daily.  Objections have been filed by local law enforcement to a small fraction of total applicants; 946 of the completed applications, less than 2 percent of the total, have been objected to.  Under current law some forms of criminal conviction, such as the violation of an order of protection, may be sued as grounds to deny CCL licensure. 

A link to the CCL application process, with answers to frequently-asked questions about the application process, can be found here: https://ccl4illinois.com/ccw/public/home.aspx.  

Heroin Epidemic

·         House Republican bill to increase treatment options advances to House floor.  While discussions continued on the specific responses Illinois will make to the current epidemic of heroin abuse and overdoses, HB 5766 (Reboletti) has advanced to the House floor for further debate.  The bill authorizes the Illinois Department of Corrections (IDOC) and DuPage County to enter into an intergovernmental agreement to set up a substance abuse treatment center as a destination point for eligible people who have been sentenced to imprisonment.

This substance abuse treatment center would provide intensive and individualized evidence-based substance abuse treatment to eligible persons diagnosed as potentially benefitting from this treatment.  A House Task Force is looking into heroin and other opiate-drug addiction issues this spring, and is gathering testimony on the correct models to be looked at as the public sector moves forward with this treatment option.  It is believed that, in some cases, mandatory treatment provided to some convicted offenders could be part of a cost-effective punishment regimen and could provide a pathway to rehabilitation for these individuals.


Illinois Jobs

·         Unemployment up in Illinois and its metro areas.  January unemployment numbers for Illinois’ metropolitan areas, released on Thursday, showed an increase in the jobless rate for every area.  While the Illinois and metro unemployment rates have mostly declined from a year ago, the uptick in month-to-month unemployment continues to be a serious concern for Illinois policymakers.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATES FOR THE STATE, METRO AREAS, COUNTIES, AND CITIES
NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
Change Over
Change  Over
STATE, U.S. AND METROPOLITAN AREAS
Jan-14
Dec-13
Jan-13
the Month
the Year
ILLINOIS
9.1
8.6
10.2
0.5
-1.1
UNITED STATES 
7.0
6.5
8.5
0.5
-1.5
BLOOMINGTON-NORMAL MSA
7.7
7.2
7.8
0.5
-0.1
CHAMPAIGN-URBANA MSA
8.5
8.0
9.1
0.5
-0.6
CHICAGO-JOLIET-NAPERVILLE, IL METROPOLITAN DIVISION
8.6
8.3
10.0
0.3
-1.4
LAKE COUNTY-KENOSHA COUNTY IL-WI METROPOLITAN DIVISION
9.2
8.5
10.1
0.7
-0.9
CHICAGO-JOLIET-NAPERVILLE, IL-IN-WI MSA
8.6
8.3
10.0
0.3
-1.4
DANVILLE MSA
12.5
12.4
11.9
0.1
0.6
DAVENPORT-MOLINE-ROCK ISLAND, IA-IL MSA,  IL PART
9.1
7.8
9.1
1.3
0.0
DAVENPORT-MOLINE-ROCK ISLAND, IA-IL MSA
8.0
6.9
8.2
1.1
-0.2
DECATUR MSA
12.9
12.4
13.9
0.5
-1.0
KANKAKEE-BRADLEY MSA
11.9
11.2
12.9
0.7
-1.0
PEORIA MSA
9.8
9.4
10.1
0.4
-0.3
ROCKFORD MSA
12.9
11.7
13.0
1.2
-0.1
SPRINGFIELD MSA
8.2
7.7
8.8
0.5
-0.6
ST. LOUIS, MO-IL MSA, IL PART
9.1
8.5
10.0
0.6
-0.9


·         Job creation legislation for high unemployment counties.  Rep. Bill Mitchell (R-Forsyth) is sponsoring job creation legislation to address the chronically high unemployment in Decatur/Macon County.

“My legislation creates tax incentives for employers in high unemployment counties such as Macon County, which consistently has a jobless rate well above the state and national averages,” Mitchell said.  “Decatur had the second-worst economic decline in all of America last year.  This is a crisis that can no longer be ignored by the powers-that-be in Springfield. 

House Bill 6013 would provide two tax incentives for employers in high unemployment counties:

1.       Employers located in the county would receive a tax deduction for a portion of the costs associated with providing workers’ compensation insurance.

2.       Businesses that employ at least 5 new employees in the county would be eligible for an Economic Development for a Growing Economy (EDGE) tax credit. The EDGE program provides tax credits to qualifying companies equal to the amount of state income taxes withheld from the salaries of employees in the newly created jobs.

HB 6013 would apply to high unemployment counties across Illinois, including Macon, Vermilion and Winnebago counties.  For more information, please click here.

Motor Fuel Prices

·         Price of gas approaching $4.00/gallon.  Many Illinoisans have become accustomed to paying record-high gas prices to commute to work, shopping, and places of worship.  Growing demand for crude oil from China, India, and other fast-growing countries has led to the world price of crude rising above $100/barrel, which all by itself represents more than $2.00 per gallon of gasoline or gasohol.  However, additional tax policies and environmental policies imposed on Illinoisans further increase the price of the essential commodity.

Illinois is one of only 9 states that charge both motor fuel excise taxes (20.1 cents per gallon on gasohol, and 22.6 cents per gallon on diesel fuel) and a separate state sales tax on motor fuel.   Further sales taxes are charged by local governments and, in the six-county Chicago area, by the Regional Transportation Authority (RTA) to provide funding for area mass transit.

In addition, federal environmental motor fuel regulations applied to so-called “nonattainment areas,” such as St. Louis and Chicago, further add to the cost of motor fuel sold in these areas because the motor fuel must be refined differently from standard gasoline.  The effect of these federal regulations becomes especially intense during the summer when demand for motor fuel is at its height.

Potholes

·         Thawing, cracked asphalt and concrete drive eruption of potholes throughout Illinois.   Aging concrete, which lies under the asphalt, is likely to develop cracks due to changes in temperature and stress from heavy motor vehicles.  With Illinois’ substandard infrastructure and massive Road Fund motor fuel tax diversions, much of Illinois’ 145,342 miles of road and highway surface needs repairs.  Weather conditions in the winter of 2013-14 have speeded up this process of road life-cycling and made an unprecedented quantity of major maintenance repairs necessary.

This mileage is maintained by the State, the counties, the municipalities, and the townships.  A complex Road Fund distribution formula governs how the inadequate sums of money raised from motor fuel taxes, and not diverted to other uses, are doled out to the road departments of these units of government.  The General Assembly is likely to be asked in the near future for supplemental funds from the severely stretched FY14 budget to cover the cost of spring 2014 emergency road repairs throughout the State.